POLYETHYLENE CARBON INTENSITY AND TRADE: HOW THE EU CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM MAY RESHAPE UZBEKISTAN’S EXPORT LANDSCAPE

Abstract

The study aims to quantitatively assess the potential financial burden of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on polyethylene exports from Uzbekistan to the European Union. The methodological framework includes statistical and horizontal analysis of export data for 2020–2024, as well as scenario-based modeling (current, baseline, and pessimistic scenarios) considering price volatility in the EU ETS. Due to the absence of official coefficients for polymers, an analogy-based approach was applied using European benchmarks and BAT data. The results indicate that the additional financial burden may reach up to €452 thousand per export shipment, increasing production costs by up to €90.5 per ton. It is established that the use of default CBAM values significantly overestimates tax liabilities. The study concludes that verification of actual emissions and low-carbon transformation of production are critical for maintaining export competitiveness in the EU market.